Who will make it tp the White House in 2016

Who will make it ot the White House in 2016Unless you were buried deep down inside a Kentucky coal mine the evening of Sept. 16, I am certain you had a great time watching CNN’s Republican Presidential Debate.

I will say one thing for Donald Trump — like him or not, you must admit he has America interested in politics. And that is a good thing. Thank you, Mr. Trump!

A few of my friends asked me if I had the courage to take a mad leap and guess about the outcome of the coming presidential election. Wow, what a challenge in mid-September 2015. Okay, here goes. If I predict right, I will be the great prognosticator. I hope no one remembers me if I guess wrong.

Everybody has strong feelings about Trump. Some love him for his position on immigration. Even though I bet he has more than one or two illegal Mexicans working for him — somewhere. Some people hate him because he is so un-political. Some hate him because he doesn’t want a woman’s face to be our next president. Some love him because he wants to tax “big” earners. Others fear him because he wants to tax “big” earners.

But one thing is sure in my mind, the real politicians, the current insiders, are afraid of him because he represents a change in the way Washington government is run. “You vote for my deal and I will vote for your deal.” “I spent a lot of money on ‘your’ campaign, now it’s your turn to take care of me.” Patronage would be out the window if Trump carries out his threat to those that have being living the way of the elected politician.

Some 35 percent are in favor of Trump? Who are they, the 35 percent? Are they the guys and gals on the street that are having a great time hearing all the bravado? The people that are enjoying the look of anxiety in the eyes of the Washington insiders that are fearing for their political lives? Are the 35 percenters going to vote for Trump or will they cast their vote for a more traditional candidate come November 2016?

The national conventions are where the “politicians” nominate the man or woman who will represent their party in the general election.

The real politicking begins when delegates have voted for the individual they were sent to the convention to support, have voted and no one made it for the red, white and blue balloon drop. Then the backroom politicking begins. And here is the real question on the delegates’ minds: Will the voting public actually vote for Trump or will they, having enjoyed the pandemonium of the preconvention days, say no to Trump and vote for the Democratic nominee?

When push comes to shove, will the men and women on the street actually vote for Trump? My guess is the delegates will think “no.” And if they guess wrong, will they not nominate Trump because they fear that if the public actually voted Trump into the White House their days of political patronage will be over.

I think that when that final decision is made the delegates will go for a safe candidate. Someone who will appeal to the Hispanics, the Asians, the guys and gals that did it the right way and made it through the process, became a voting American and have not forgotten their Latin or Asian backgrounds and go for someone who did not disparage those of their heritage. That is someone with a more all-encompassing approach to the immigration process — the Democratic candidate.

On the other side of the aisle the big question is: have Democrats soured on Hillary Clinton? Could a socialist make it through the Democratic convention? Will the late comer, the current VP, jump in and take over the Democratic Party? I don’t think so. It will be one of the 16 (17 prospects minus Trump) vs. Clinton. The Republicans will fall apart, having gone too long with Trump trying to steal the party, and not taking stronger action will fail and put a Democrat in the White House for another four years.
Right or wrong? Your opinion please?

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About the Author

Kenneth Bluh
Kenneth has been writing a column for Community Newspapers since 1989 when he first wrote about the incorporation movement in UMSA (Unincorporated Municipal Services Area). His columns cover the political scene in Miami-Dade and Tallahassee. Educated at the Wharton School in Philadelphia, Kenneth has been a member of the banking/mortgage lending profession in Florida since 1962. Contact him at kbluh@americanbsm.com or 786-247-0547 where he manages American Bancshares Mortgage LLC’s Reverse Mortgage Department.

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