2022 Game Preview: Buccaneers-Panthers, Week 7

Panthers:

• The Panthers made a big change in leadership, not during the offseason but less than two weeks ago when the team elected to fire Head Coach Matt Rhule. Rhule had assumed his post before the 2020 season and had led the team to an 11-27 record, including a 1-4 start to this year. Defensive Pass Game Coordinator Steve Wilks, who was the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach in 2018, was promoted to interim head coach.
• On the same day that Rhule was fired, October 11, the team also parted ways with Defensive Coordinator Phil Snow and Assistant Special Teams Coach Ed Foley. Al Holcomb, previously the defensive run game coordinator, has assumed the defensive coordinator duties on an interim basis.
• Carolina’s coaching staff had a new look in 2022 even before the recent firings. Rhule made eight changes to the group in February, including the hiring of former Giants Head Coach Ben McAdoo as offensive coordinator. He replaced Joe Brady, who had been fired 12 games into the 2021 campaign. Offensive Line Coach Pat Meyer and his assistant, Tony Sparano Jr., were also let go and replaced by James Campen and Robert Kugler, respectively. Rhule also fired Defensive Line Coach Frank Okam and replaced him with Paul Pasqualoni, and when Secondary Coach Jason Simmons left for a similar position in Las Vegas the Panthers brought back Wilks for that spot. Two other coaches on offense – Brian Angelichio (tight ends) and Frisman Jackson (wide receivers) also left for positions elsewhere in the league – so Carolina hired Joe Dailey to tutor the wideouts and reassigned Kevin M. Gilbride from defensive analyst to tight ends coach. Finally, Rhule brought on a new Special Teams Coordinator in February, replacing Chase Blackburn with former Bears assistant Chris Tabor.
• The Panthers also recently had a temporary change in leadership on the field, though not by choice. Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold – the first and third-overall picks in the 2018 draft – began training camp in a battle for the starting job, and on August 22 Rhule announced that Mayfield would start the opener. A week later, the point became moot when Darnold suffered an ankle injury in the preseason finale and was placed on injured reserve. Mayfield started the first five games of the season but sustained a high ankle sprain of his own in Week Five and was expected to miss several weeks. That thrusts third-year man P.J. Walker into the top spot; he started against the Rams last Sunday and will likely still have the job when the Buccaneers visit this coming Sunday, assuming he can recover from the neck injury that knocked him out of that contest late.
• Whoever plays quarterback for the Panthers on Sunday will be without one of his top three targets on the season. On Monday, Carolina traded wide receiver Robbie Anderson to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for two draft picks, a sixth-rounder in 2024 and a seventh-rounder in 2025.
• Carolina’s defense saw the departure of three starters in free agency over the offseason, most notably edge rusher Haason Reddick. After leading the Panthers’ defense with 11.0 sacks in his one season in the town, Reddick got a lucrative deal from the Eagles. Linebacker Jermaine Carter started all 17 games for the Panthers in 2021 but signed with Kansas City before eventually being released in the final cuts. And cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a midseason trade acquisition last year, signed with the Colts after starting eight of the nine games he appeared in for Carolina.

TOP STORYLINES

Uncertainty Under Center in Charlotte – Given what has transpired since March of 2020, the Panthers’ decision to cut ties (at least temporarily) with the brightest start in franchise history, Cam Newton, has not looked like a mistake. However, the team’s efforts to find a replacement franchise quarterback have not borne much fruit as of yet. The first solution was a sizeable three-year deal for Teddy Bridgewater, but that lasted one year before he was traded to Denver, with Carolina paying a big chunk of his remaining guaranteed salary. Next, Carolina traded for Sam Darnold, the third-overall pick in the 2018 draft, last offseason. That started well in the Panthers’ 3-0 start but Darnold ran into some injuries and saw his production decline steeply as the season progressed. Finally, the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, the first pick in that 2018 draft, and set up a battle for the starting job between those two draft mates. Mayfield won that battle and, just days later, Darnold suffered an ankle sprain in the preseason finale that put him on injured reserve. Darnold is still on IR and not expected back this week, while Mayfield is dealing with his own ankle injury that had him in walking boot on the sideline last Sunday. The Panthers turned by necessity to P.J. Walker, who had played for Matt Rhule at Temple, but Walker managed just 60 yards on 16 passes before he left the game with a neck strain. Walker seems confident that he will be available on Sunday against the Buccaneers, but Mayfield remains a significant question mark. Interim Head Coach Steve Wilks, asked on Monday if Mayfield would immediately return to his starting spot once he is cleared to play, responded with, “I can’t give you that answer.” Barring any late roster moves, the Panthers’ only other option would appear to be practice squad passer Jacob Eason, who finished up on Sunday when Walker went down. However, that could change a bit by Sunday, as Darnold has been designated to return from injured reserve and could theoretically be cleared at any time.

A Fix for Offensive Woes? – The Tom Brady-led Buccaneers paced the league in scoring over his first two seasons in Tampa with 30.4 points per game. In 2022, that average is down more than 10 points and the Buccaneers rank 20th in the league. As compared to a year ago, the Bucs have had to work through quite a bit of change to their offensive lineup, beginning with a front line that has new starters at all three interior spots. Tight end Rob Gronkowski retired, further changing how the Bucs operate on offense, and the team tried to reload with the likes of Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Kyle Rudolph but have not yet adequately replaced Gronkowski’s contributions. Tampa Bay’s coaching staff expected the 2022 offense to be a work in progress and felt that it would take a month or so to establish an identity on that side of the ball. They likely expected to be a bit farther along in that process by late October, but there is certainly a prevailing sense that the best days for this offense are still ahead. The Buccaneers have to find a way to be more productive in the red zone, where they have only converted 50% of their chances into touchdowns, and their have been some confounding woes on short third downs. In addition, the Bucs’ rushing attack ranks last in the league, and while that was never going to be the driving engine for this offense as currently comprised, a strong ground showing in the season opener in Dallas seemed to hint that it would be more of a force in 2022 than the previous two seasons. The Buccaneers’ search for the right mix on offense will continue in Week Seven in Charlotte.

Secondary Shuffling – Compared to its offense, Tampa Bay’s defense had been relatively injury-free, apart from Akiem Hicks’ foot malady, which helped it get off to a very strong start over the first three weeks of the season. However, a recent rash of mishaps has shaken up the defensive backfield, with safety Logan Ryan now on injured reserve and safety Mike Edwards (elbow) and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (quad) dealing with recent injuries. In Week Six, the Bucs landed on an unexpected solution to the thinned ranks at safety by using cornerback Dee Delaney in that role in sub packages. That allowed the coaches to continue using their top playmaker, Antoine Winfield Jr., in a dual role at safety and slot corner. However, it also thrust an inexperienced player in Delaney into an unfamiliar role, while veteran Keanu Neal also played far more than in previous weeks with Edwards out. That secondary only allowed 211 passing yards to the Steelers’ pair of quarterbacks but understandable communication issues may have been largely to blame for Pittsburgh converting four straight third downs of 11 or more yards. Bowles indicated on Monday that it was a different defender on each of those four players that made the critical mistake. Edwards may be able to return from his injury against Carolina, which would return some of the secondary’s stability, but Ryan is now out for at least four weeks. Tampa Bay’s cohesiveness in the secondary will be tested in the month ahead, beginning Sunday in Charlotte.

Southern Supremacy – The best part about the Buccaneers’ underwhelming 3-3 start is that it includes a 2-0 record in divisional play. As noted above, the defending NFC South champions have already logged wins over the Saints and Falcons and now have a chance to go three-for-three against their division foes. The Buccaneers have not started out 3-0 in divisional play in any season since 2007, when they would finish 5-1 against the Falcons, Panthers and Saints and win the NFC South title. Doing so by winning on Sunday in Charlotte would put them in good position to duplicate that feat, particularly since two of their three remaining divisional games will be played in Tampa. The Falcons, also 3-3 but probably exceeding expectations in the minds of most NFL analysts, has a tough draw in Week Seven with a game in Cincinnati. The Buccaneers lost their grip on sole possession of the NFC South lead last Sunday but will have an opportunity to get it back this weekend.

Where Have the Turnovers Gone? – The Buccaneers have not lost the turnover battle in their last two games, but they haven’t won it either. Neither team gave it away a single time in Tampa Bay’s Week Five win over Atlanta or Week Six loss in Pittsburgh, which is low-key pretty remarkable. This is just the second time in franchise history that the Buccaneers have played two consecutive games without either team committing a turnover. Obviously, that’s a very welcome trend on offense, where Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since Week One, but the defense usually thrives on takeaways. Even with these last two games included, Tampa Bay’s defense ranks fifth over the last three seasons with 63 takeaways and the Bucs are first in that span with a +21 turnover margin. Some of this turnover drought, which also includes a Week Four loss against Kansas City with only one takeaway, has been the luck of the bounce, as the defense has forced two fumbles in the last two weeks but not been able recover either of them. Pittsburgh also put the pigskin on the grass late in last weekend’s game on an errant snap but Mitchell Trubisky barely beat Delaney to the ball. Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has come up with nine takeaways in six games, but five of those came in a rush at New Orleans in Week Two, including four in one quarter. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay’s defensive rankings of fifth in scoring and seventh in yards are good and well-earned, but turnovers often make the difference between winning and losing and the Buccaneers want to get back to forcing a lot of them.