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The global status quo is changing at a breathtaking pace. In February, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, prompting the US to dump billions of dollars in aid and equipment to help in a conflict that has effectively become a proxy war between Russia and the United States. This singular event has set into a motion a series of crucial foreign policy decisions that will make or break the 21st century for the US. Here’s a breakdown of what’s on the president’s plate:
The Russo-Ukrainian War
Needless to say, the conflict is at the forefront of Biden’s mind when it comes to addressing US interests abroad. Russia has found itself pinned by a NATO alliance that has continually encroached on its borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union but before you hang your hat on the idea that NATO has provoked Russia into war with Ukraine, it’s important to recall the history Russia has had with its Eastern European neighbors. For centuries, Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states have existed under the weight of a Russian Empire bent on digging deeper into Eastern Europe and after that, a Soviet Union that, prior to the start of World War 2, was content to let millions of Ukrainians starve to cull the demands for independence by a starving population.
It stands to reason that the NATO members most adamant about backing Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty are Poland and the Baltic States. But through all this, there are two unmentioned countries that have also been wary of its hawkish neighbor. Sweden and Finland.
Sweden and Finland to Join NATO
Both Sweden and Finland have spent the better part of a hundred years remaining neutral in Europe’s conflicts. Finland’s last armed conflict was actually the Winter War, when the Soviet Union invaded the country in order to secure its northern borders. During the Cold War, Finland agreed to remain neutral in the interest of keeping Soviet troops from impeding on their lands but that always came with the condition that the Soviets wouldn’t threaten them. Now that Putin has seen fit to take control of its neighbors by force, suddenly neutrality doesn’t feel so certain. Along with Sweden, Finland has decided to formally submit an application to join NATO and complete the trifecta of Nordic countries that have closed its doors to Russian influence and aligned themselves with the US and the West. In order for a country to join NATO, however, all existing members must vote unanimously in favor of accepting them of which there has only been one holdout: Turkey.
Turkey Prowls the Syrian Border
Many NATO states like the US, France, Germany, and especially the Eastern European bloc haven’t been too happy with Turkey as of late. The country’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is coming up on an election in which he’s trying desperately to win. As such, the entire affair between Russia and Ukraine has been largely a political game for him. President Erdogan initially demanded that Sweden extradites a Turkish journalist branded by his administration as a “terrorist” to which Sweden not-so-politely refused. Turkey initially seemed poised to back down from their demands after facing pressure from other NATO allies but yet another wrinkle has been tossed into the mix.
Oil for Me but not for Thee
Through all of this, one thing has definitely affected Americans here at home: oil prices. American oil reserves have plummeted since the Russo-Ukrainian war began in earnest and that does not bode well. Despite having some of the richest oil reserves in the world, the US simply refuses to tap into them, forcing us to depend on imports from countries like Saudi Arabia. Biden butt heads with Prime Minister Mohammed Al Saud over prices who is keen on raising them despite the already dire shortage of oil and gas around the world. The US, once content with overlooking Saudi Arabia’s human rights abuses within its borders, isn’t as happy now that the perks of extending a friendly hand comes at a steeper cost.
The US is lucky that Iran is too focused with its own civil unrest because as it stands, two of the US’ traditional Middle Eastern allies have flexed leverage on situations that are developing into tense situations for America in the foreign policy department. If you thought Biden had enough to deal with abroad, wait until you see the developments occurring in Asia, where America’s most dangerous enemy continues to gather up a storm.
The Sleeping Tiger: China
In November, President Xi Jinping said quite bluntly that its armed forces must prepare for war. When? Most likely soon – sometime in the next few years in what many imagine would be an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. This timeline, however, will possibly extend for a bit as a result of Biden’s response to the matter, stating clearly and more directly than any president before him that the United States is prepared to throw all its weight behind Taiwan in the case of an invasion. For Xi Jinping, that is a serious blow to his plans for dominating Asia because Taiwan’s strategic location allows the US to blockade China at a moment’s notice and just like Russia, the world will hurt but not as much as China if trade ceases altogether.
Even more important than any strategic bases or military flexing is what Taiwan provides to both China and the US. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC for short, is home to the world’s most advanced microchips. It’s also the world’s largest producer of them and to give you an idea of just how crucial this company is to the global economy, everything from tanks, to planes, to iPhones use these chips and they come from one place: TSMC. In the event of an armed conflict breaking out between China and the US, Taiwan can tip the scales simply by denying China access to these all important microchips. If China succeeds in conquering Taiwan, however, it can do the same to the US. South Korea and Japan are passable backups in such a scenario but it’s hardly comparable. The US and its allies in the Pacific are consequently quite alarmed by China’s recent steps to sound the horn and it’s caused Asian military budgets to trend upward.
Most recently, Biden visited Vietnam and neighboring countries in southeast Asia to shore up friendly ties there which helps but China shows no sign of curbing their aggression any time soon.
Taking the Next Step
Isolationism in the US has always been a powerful movement that sought to keep America out of pointless conflicts abroad. I’m sure no one will have any trouble picking out one or two countries we didn’t need to send troops into but isolationism as a whole is currently an untenable stance for the United States in the 21st century. When you sign up to be the world’s sole superpower, you can’t just take a backseat where our interests are involved. The post-WW2 era has seen the largest drop in warfare between nations in history. Much of that is due to the US’ watchful eye and its interest in maintaining the status quo, where we remain the leader of the international community. Should the US successfully maneuver through the countless challenges ahead of them, they could potentially buy the world another century of relative peace. If they don’t, well, it’s very possible we begin to see the decline of the American era of history and our influence shrinks away from regional powers that have asserted their dominance over areas once protected by the United States.
Andres Pena is a Pinecrest resident and graduate of New York University with degrees in both English and American Literature and Political Science
