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Last week my youngest graduated from FSU. Yep, after four years he received his college degree. Thousands of his fellow undergrads made the quick transition to college grads and with that are either starting a job, start looking for a job or continuing the hunt. The last two will likely take place within the confines of their parent(s) home.
But something is not working. Our education system, with its hyper-focus on four-year colleges, and the employment it brings has somehow failed its students. Just check the numbers.
NO DEGREE NEEDED
Over the past 20 years, we have created twice as many bachelor’s degrees as jobs to employ those who have earned them. More than 40 percent of recent graduates are underemployed. Meaning that they’re working in jobs that don’t require their degree.
America is suffering from a worker shortage, but a more persistent and perhaps even urgent problem is the profound lack of skills among college graduates.
American elite universities may still be still regarded as the world’s best, but for most students, the educational system—from grade school to graduate school—is not working based on its purpose of ‘finding a good job” and diminished competition on the international stage.
This crisis in competence predates the pandemic. So does the very related labor shortage. The percentage of firms reporting shortages of labor more than doubled between 2015 and 2020, to 70 percent. By 2028, global recruiting firm Korn Ferry projects there will be a deficit of at least six million workers.
Students are getting the message: A survey taken in 2020 found that only a third of undergraduates see their educations as advancing their career goals, and barely one in five think the BA is worth the cost.
A POOR ROI
The basic reality is this: The upfront investment is high. Tuition fees for four-year public colleges have increased by an average of 213 percent in real terms between 1988 and 2017 but the return on investment seems to be failing.
Not surprisingly, overall enrollment is not simply dropping; it’s fallen a full 11 percent in the past decade. Increasingly, employers recognize the education industry’s failures.
The logical alternative for many may be something that has been in decline for decades: a highly beneficial trade education.
The country might be short of bodies of any kind, but the most persistent demand and greatest rewards lie for those with specific skills, from medical technicians to programmers. But the biggest unmet demand may be for blue-collar professionals like welders, machine tool operators, carpenters, and plumbers.
WELDERS WANTED
These workers, essential to the functioning of the economy, are where the employment future for most belongs. The current shortage of welders, now at 240,000, could grow to 400,000 by 2024. Amid a mild recovery in the U.S., by late 2021, nearly one million manufacturing jobs went unfilled.
The current labor shortage suggests that skills in such fields as manufacturing, logistics and home building are likely to remain long in demand.
GERMANS, SWEDES AND TENNESSEANS
In the past, regional economies looked to elite research universities to drive their economy. Today they should consider boosting their skills-training programs, something that’s well underway in Ohio, Kentucky, Nebraska and Tennessee. This follows the successful approach employed in European countries like Germany and Sweden.
Tennessee has used its training program as a lure for car companies such as Ford and other manufacturers. This has been a critical part of its success in transforming the state into a center for the emerging electric car industry.
At a time of growing income inequality and diminished opportunity, a return to basic skills education promises a new reality for America’s working and middle class.
This shift may not please many in the education space, but it certainly does for workers cashing their paychecks.
This column is by Ritchie Lucas, Founder of The Student Success Project and Think Factory Consulting. He can be reached by email at ritchie@thinkfactory.com and on Facebook and You Tube as The Student Success Project.
