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The headlines are not good for residential real estate. First-time homebuyers are nearly non-existent. Interest rates have been stuck in a narrow range for nearly two years.
Homeowners who bought in the halcyon days of 2-3% interest rates have golden handcuffs keeping them from moving. Insurance and property taxes are rising. National and geopolitical events are also creating uncertainty. In short, internal and external forces are creating a perfect storm of indecision.
The latest result of this storm is quite telling. Sellers are pulling their homes off the market in record numbers. In fact, according to Realtor.com’s July housing report, Miami homes are coming off the market faster than anywhere else in the country! Miami now has the highest ratio of delistings to new listings in the U.S. — 59 for every 100, up from 27 for every 100 in May.
As an industry veteran, I believe that delisting a home is a risky move. Staying on the market means you are in the game! You don’t lose time and can hunt for a contract, while always being able to reject offers. But once you delist, you’re gambling on brighter days that may never arrive.
My advice is to BE BOLD! When they zig, you zag. Swim upstream. Whatever your favorite analogy is, use it. When too many people are on the sidelines, it actually creates opportunity. Supply and demand is the golden rule of any business transaction. Right now, sellers (supply) still have some leverage, but that is likely to change soon. Markets reward those who play the game, not those who sit on the bench.
Specifically speaking in the sub-$2M housing market where mortgages are typical, the appraisal is often the gating factor between success and failure. For much of the past few years, appraisals have supported sellers’ asking prices, allowing deals to close. Now, appraisers are beginning to bring down valuations, effectively lowering sales prices.
For about two years, mortgage rates have hovered in what many perceive as a “high” range. While historically not extreme, they stand in stark contrast to the unprecedented 2–3% rates available during the pandemic years. Those who secured such loans are now effectively locked into their homes, unable or unwilling to move because of the steep financial penalty of trading up to a higher-rate mortgage. It is the epitomy of having “golden handcuffs.”
Some analysts believe housing market relief could come from expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. I remain skeptical. The problem is that the 2020-2022 pandemic incorrectly set an expectation of hyper-low rates. Now, anything above 4% seems high. In reality, the mortgage interest rates are actually quite palatable when looking at them over a 50-year time span.
But interest rates alone are not the sole issue at hand. Rising living expenses, paired with wage stagnation, are keeping many would-be buyers out of the market. According to Realtor.com’s economists, financial obligations beyond housing including student loans, car payments, and everyday essentials are weighing heavily on households. As a result, the homeownership rate has slipped back to levels not seen since 2019.
Policy changes have added even more noise than solutions. Following a landmark case against the National Association of Realtors in 2024, commissions briefly dipped. While some in Washington argued this would enhance affordability, the effect was negligible. I contend this was political theater.
Even national homebuilders are showing signs of stress. Lennar Homes’ average sales price dropped 19.5% from the peak in 2022 and is back where it had been in 2020, having given up the entire 2020-2022 price explosion.
As an active agent, I see us close to a tipping point. We already see a very slow market and if appraisals continue trending downward, broader sentiment will inevitably follow. Deals will hinge less on hope and more on cold, hard numbers… a trajectory that could accelerate Miami toward a recessionary phase.
In mythology, Icarus flew too close to the sun and fell when his wings melted. Many in real estate now view the COVID-19 housing surge as a modern parallel—a market soaring on unsustainable conditions that eventually overheated.
The Icarus quote is “Fly too low, and the sea will drag you down. Fly too high, and the sun will melt your wings.” COVID-19 was our sun. And unless homeowners act boldly and quickly, they may soon fall prey to the sea.
I’d love to be wrong about my prediction, the path forward is far from certain, but I see a further downturn from here. My message is clear: indecision carries risks of its own and time does not stop. Get moving and BE BOLD NOW. Face the market we know, not the uncertain future.
Idyllic Palmetto Bay Family Home
16225 SW 88th Avenue Road, Palmetto Bay, FL 33157 (MLS # A11823985). Now offered at $1,100,000.
Wonderful family home on quiet street where all the neighbors know each other! 2,336 sq ft with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths on large 18,750 sq ft lot. This well-cared for and loved home features a field stone accent wall & impeccable wood floors, making it feel oh so homey!
Beautiful view to pool from front door. LED recessed lights in the living room and kitchen.
Entertain and feed your inner chef! Kitchen with real wood cabinets, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a pass-thru window to the covered and screened pool/patio area. New pool fence and fans. Extra-large, lush yard with fruit trees and fenced for dogs to run. Manicured lawn and layout make this the perfect yard for entertaining, play and relaxation. 2015 AC, 2010 roof, flat roof 2023. 2010 HWH. Wash/Dryer 2022. Two car garage, alarm, and hurricane shutters (some electric) make this a great place to call home.
Gorgeous glass closet doors. This home is Special!
Real Estate Update
As of 8/27/25, there were 152 properties for sale in Pinecrest, 17 homes pending sale and 8.9 months of inventory. If you’re ready to move, contact me to get the best local expertise, truthful guidance and realistic expectations. It’s easy to get started at miamihal.com/getstarted. I invite you to view past episodes of my The MiamiHal Real Estate Show at miamihal.com/the-miamihal-real-estate-show to hear from experts and get the latest real estate news.
Hal Feldman (MiamiHal) is a Realtor with RE/MAX Advance Realty. You can contact him with your story ideas or real estate questions at www.MiamiHal.com, Hal@MiamiHal.com or www.facebook.com/MiamiHal
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