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In 2002, Jeb Bush won Miami-Dade County in the Gubernatorial Race against then opposition, Bill McBride. Now, two decades later, Miami-Dade falls back into the Republican fold. This time, it would support incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis. Close behind, Senator Marco Rubio carried the county as well on his way back to Washington D.C. Why the Democratic stronghold has fallen will be the subject of great debate in the following years and the Democrats will need to do quite a bit of heavy lifting if they hope to win Florida’s crucial 30 electoral college votes in 2024.
So, what happened? In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by a whopping 30 points. In 2018, Ron Desantis won the governorship despite losing the county by roughly 21 points but that nine-point shift would prove to be the start of a worrying trend for Democrats in Florida. In 2020, President Joe Biden won Miami-Dade County by only seven points and now, only two years later, the county flipped altogether. With a 70% Hispanic population, it is no doubt that among Hispanics lies the greatest influence in determining the outcome of the county’s political leanings. Even Tampa’s Hillsborough County, in which roughly 30% of its residents are Hispanic, has been plucked from the grasp of the Democratic establishment. Why did Democrats fall out of favor with Florida Hispanics? My answer lies with the cognitive dissonance the Democratic Party holds in its strategy towards its Hispanic base particularly in Florida.
The traditional Hispanic voter places great importance on family, work, and education. It just so happens that one of the biggest issues in Florida this election is family involvement in their child’s education. Regardless of where you stand regarding the implementation of LGBT-friendly curriculums, the party in favor of mandating government involvement in the classroom is fighting the uphill battle especially against the largely conservative Cuban voter base. Charlie Crist lost big time on this issue during their one and only debate and Ron DeSantis was able to frame the conversation around allowing parents to throw out what appeared to be government packaged sex-ed classes.
Next comes inflation and the economy which lies largely at the foot of the sitting president, Joe Biden. Midterm elections always blow in the direction of the party in opposition to the one in power. American voter trends have tended towards balance for as long as elections were held in the United States and a vulnerable economy buckling under the weight of rising costs makes for a heavy tailwind behind Republican sails in Florida. Ultimately, Charlie Crist and Val Deming’s campaigns failed to plug the economy hole because their party affiliations tied them to the waning political winds of the Democrats. And what’s worse, they failed to plug the hole of Hispanics trading their allegiances in Miami-Dade.
In 2024, Florida will gain one electoral college vote and move from 29 to 30 strong for the national election. With the state now slipping fast from their fingers, what can the Democratic Party do in order to curb the red wave and win back the state? First, they need to take a more aggressive stance against hated Cuban and Venezuelan regimes which they failed to do sufficiently in the past. Obama’s soft foreign policy towards Cuba remains fresh in the minds of many Cuban-Americans and it’s driven even deeper by the lackluster stance against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. In July of 2021, when Cubans rose up in protest all across the island and Miami-Dade County, Marco Rubio was advocating for measures to take against the Cuban regime in Congress and Ron DeSantis was in Miami-Dade joining the protests in Calle Ocho. It was a golden opportunity for Joe Biden to right the ship in Florida and curry favor among his Hispanic supporters in Miami-Dade. In the end, very little was done and now, in the wake of deeply red midterm elections in Florida, many in Miami are left wondering, what gives? Has the Democratic Party forgotten Miami-Dade?
The two-year countdown to 2024 begins and the Democrats are faced with a choice. They can either redouble their efforts in Florida and attempt to win back the once reliable Miami-Dade County, or they can turn their attention elsewhere. It served them well in stopping Republican pushes in other parts of the country. If they choose the latter, however, it is safe to say that Florida will move from its swing-state status into a new Republican stronghold alongside Texas come 2024.
Andres Pena is a Pinecrest resident and graduate of New York University with degrees in both English and American Literature and Political Science
